1 | Expect a shortage of about 100,000 critical health care workers by 2028.

The impact of the shortages will be uneven and an added burden to a system strained by geographic and demographic disparities in access to care, the report states. Populous states like California, Texas and Pennsylvania are expected to weather the storm with the estimated labor supply exceeding demand. Acute shortages are projected, however, in states like New York and New Jersey.

2 | Shortage of nurse assistants (NAs) may be severe.

Only 13 states are expected to meet or exceed future demand and Mercer forecasts a shortage of about 73,000 NAs by 2028. Because NAs make up a large share of the overall health care workforce, these projected shortages warrant close attention.

3 | Gaps may differ widely by state on registered nurse availability.

Mercer projects a slight surplus of RNs by 2028. This is counter to many other projections by experts who forecast a shortage of nurses. Mercer does project nursing shortages for New York and other East Coast states.

4 | Modest surplus of physicians expected nationally.

While research and popular discussions have predicted physician shortages in the U.S. under different scenarios, the report’s authors expect a surplus of about 28,000 doctors. The authors based their findings on the Bureau of Labor Statistics standard occupation codes for all physician jobs. While some states may find a modest surplus of physicians by 2028, states like California (-2,580), Texas (-2,830) and New York (-2,706) could see sizable shortages and the combined impact of shortages for both NPs and physicians may result in significant disruptions to the continued delivery of preventive care.

5 | Compensation variation could lead some workers to move.

Understanding compensation variation by occupation and geography is crucial to prepare for potential shortages. If NAs can earn more for doing the same job by moving to a neighboring state, or even a metropolitan area, they may choose to relocate, the authors note.